Friday, April 13, 2012

Bruins Caps Game 1: Stats

I'm going to take a look at the statistics from last night's Game 1 between Boston and Washington in which the Bruins won 1-0 in Overtime. Chris Kelly scored on his 1st shot of the game. The only stat that matters, of course, is goals, but I have lots of time on my hands if you could't tell.


The Bruins had a VERY slight edge in the faceoff circle by winning 33 to Washington's 32 (51% vs 49%). Jay Beagle won the most total faceoffs for Washington with 9 and for Boston, Patrice Bergeron had 18 faceoff wins. 18! If not for Bergeron's brilliance in the faceoff circle, the Bruins would have been in trouble. Washington won 54% of the faceoffs during even strength, winning 29 of 54 to Boston's 25 of 54. On the Power Play, Boston won 7 of 8 faceoffs for 88%, but was 1 for 3 on the PK for 33%.

Bergeron, of course, led Boston in total faceoffs taken and won. He took 25 faceoffs and won 18 (72%). He took 7 faceoffs in the offensive zone and won 5 of them (71%); he won 4 out of 6 in the defensive zone (67%); and 9 out of 12 in the neutral zone (75%). Bergeron won 16 of 22 total faceoffs against Brooks Laich (73%), which will be a huge matchup this series. He went 1-1 against Backstrom and Perreault and 0-1 against Matt Hendricks. In the defensive zone, Bergeron lost only 2 out of 5 faceoffs against Laich (60% win percentage), and lost only 1 of 6 against Laich in the offensive zone (83%).


David Krejci took 14 total faceoffs and won 7 (50%). He went 50% in the offensive zone, 86% (6 of 7) in the neutral zone, but did not win a single faceoff in the defensive zone in 5 tries. He went 0-3 against Backstrom in the offensive zone and 0-2 against Perrault. He saw Backstrom the most overall - 6 times - and only won 2 (33%). Krejci still wasn't as bad in the faceoff circle as the rest of his teammates aside from Bergeron.

Chris Kelly took 12 faceoffs and lost 42% (winning 5 of 12). He won 50% in the neutral zone, 40% in the offensive zone, and only 33% in the defensive zone. He saw Matt Hendricks the most - 5 times - and won 3 (60%) of those faceoffs. He never faced Hendricks in the defensive zone; in that zone, Kelly went 1-1 against Laich, but 0-1 against Beagle and Backstrom.

The Bruins 4th line did not play well, reflected in the numbers of their center, Gregory Campbell. He went 0 for 4 in the faceoff circle, losing 2 in the neutral zone and 1 each in defensive and offensive zones. Shawn Thornton stepped in for 1 faceoff and lost it as well. Rich Peverley took 3 faceoffs and only won 1 (33%). Brian Rolston took 6 faceoffs and won only 2 (33%). He went 1 for 5 against Beagle, who owned the Bruins all night. He went 7 for 9 in the defensive zone (78%) and 9 for 12 total (75%). Brooks Laich won only 7 out of 26 faceoffs taken (27%).

Special Teams


Washington was 0-2 on the power play; Boston went 0-4. David Krejci took 2 penalties in the game; in the 1st, he sat 2 minutes for boarding at 12:54 and then at almost the same time in the 2nd period (12:18), he got another 2 minutes for roughing. His roughing minor was coincidental with that John Carlson of Washington. While it was 4-on-4, Caps goalie Braden Holtby took a minor for roughing (served by Johansson) at 12:42 of the 2nd, giving the Bruins a 4-on-3 that they failed to score on.

The Bruins also failed to score on a double minor when Jay Beagle high sticked Krejci at 18:27 of the 1st and drew blood. They had a brief 5-on-3 when Troy Brouwer sent the puck over the glass for a delay of game penalty at 2:29 of the 2nd, but again, Boston couldn't score. In the 3rd, Chara had the lone penalty at 3:12 for cross-checking.

Also notable is that although Krejci took 2 penalties, he also drew 2 penalties.

+/-: On the ice for the Bruins OT goal was Greg Zanon, Brian Rolston, Joe Corvo, Benoit Pouliot, and Chris Kelly. For Washington, Dennis Wideman, Alexander Semin, Jeff Schultz, Jay Beagle, and Marcus Johansson registered a -1 each as they were on the ice for Kelly's goal.

Hits: Washington had 29 hits to Boston's 40. Alex Ovechkin had 7 hits; Chimera had 5. Seidenberg led Boston with 6 hits, while Zanon and Thornton each had 5.

Giveaways: Washington had 9 giveaways. Chimera and Green each had 2. Boston also had 9 giveaways, with Rolston and Pouliot each with 2 giveaways.

Takeaways: Boston and Washington each had 2 takeaways as well. Paille and Bergeron were credited with Boston's takeaways while Backstrom and Perrault had 1 each for Washington.

Blocked shots: Washington had 22 blocked shots, and Boston had 15. Boychuk and Ference led Boston with 3 blocked shots. Zanon and Krejci each had 2; Seidenberg, Lucic, Thornton, Kelly, and Marchand each had 1. For the Caps, Hamrlik had 5 blocked shots and Brouwer had 4. Johnasson, Green, Wideman, Laich, and Alzner each had 2. Beagle, Hendricks, and Backstrom had 1.

The Bruins regular lines were as follows:

  1. Lucic - Krejci - Peverley
  2. Marchand - Bergeron - Seguin
  3. Pouliot - Kelly - Rolston
  4. Paille - Campbell - Thornton
Defensive pairings for Boston were:
  1. Chara - Seidenberg
  2. Ference - Boychuk
  3. Zanon - Corvo
For special teams, Boston's PK units up front were generally Kelly with Peverley, Bergeron with Marchand, and Campbell with Paille. The PP unites were Peverley with Seidenberg on the points for 1 unit and Chara and Corvo on the points for the next unit. 

Washington's forward lines and defense pairs were:
  1. Ovechkin - Laich - Brouwer
  2. Semin - Backstrom - Chimera
  3. Hendricks - Beagle - Johansson
  4. Aucoin - Perrault - Ward
For Washington:
  1. Wideman - Schultz
  2. Carlson - Alzner
  3. Hamrlik - Green
On the PK, the Caps paired up Brouwer and Laich, and Hendricks and Johansson. On the PP, their 1st unit was 4 forwards and 1 defenseman: Ovechkin, Laich, Backstrom, Semin, and Green. Their 2nd unit was Brouwer, Johansson, Carlson, Wideman, and Aucoin.

Time on Ice
Seidenberg led Boston with 23:52 total time on ice, followed by Chara at 21:46. Boychuk and Ference each had about 17 minutes of ice time. Zanon had 17:05, but Corvo had 19:10 because of his extra time on the power play. 

Seidenberg also led in PP time (4:53); Peverley led with 2:04 of time on the PK (while Seidenberg had 2:03). Chara led the Bruins with 17:43 even strength time on ice, followed by David Krejci with 17:00. Bergeron led all forwards and was 2nd to only Seidenberg in PP TOI (4:28). 

Chara would presumably have logged more time overall than Seidenberg if he hadn't spent 2 minutes in the penalty box. Similarly, players that both kill penalties and play on the power play have the most ice time, but the power play units that do not kill penalties (Krejci, Lucic, Seguin) got more ice time last night because the Bruins spent more time on the power play than on the PK.

Total ice time leaders for Boston:
  1. Seidenberg
  2. Chara
  3. Krejci
  4. Peverley
  5. Bergeron
  1. Seidenberg
  2. Bergeron
  3. Peverley
  4. Marchand
  5. Seguin
  1. Peverley
  2. Seidenberg
  3. Kelly
  4. Boychuk
  5. Ference
Even Strength:
  1. Chara
  2. Krejci
  3. Seidenberg
  4. Corvo
  5. Zanon
  6. Ference
  7. Boychuk
  8. Lucic
  9. Bergeron
  10. Peverley
For the Capitals, Alzner led his team in total time on ice with 23:01, short handed time at 4:08, and even strength time at 18:53. Green led in power play time at 2:59. Had the Capitals had more time even strength or power play rather than on the penalty kill, Ovechkin likely would have logged much more time. Similarly for the Bruins, the Bergeron line matches up against the Ovechkin line; the more or less Ovechkin plays at even strength, the more time the Bergeron line will see. The more time Ovechkin sees overall, the more time Seidenberg, Chara, and Bergeron will see. 

Shots and Corsi/Fenwick
Boston outshot the Capitals 30-17. Thomas made 17 saves on 17 shots, while Holtby made 29 saves on 30 shots (.967 save percentage). Boston outshot Washington in the 1st period 9-5. In the 2nd period, they outshot Washington by a ridiculous margin of 17 to 2! In the 3rd, the Caps had the better play and outshot Boston 9 to 3. In overtime, each team had 1 shot, but of course, Boston's shot went in.

Boston only had 3 shots in 6:24 time of 5-on-4 power play time and just 1 shit in 1:36 of 4-on-3. Washington had 2 shots total in 4 minutes of PP time. Each team had 1 shot during 4-on-4 even strength.

Tyler Seguin led Boston shooters with 5 total shots. Peverley had 4; Rolston, Bergeron, Paille, and Corvo each had 3. Chara had 2 shots as well. Only Seidenberg, Krejci, Pouliot, and Thornton failed to register a shot on net, although Thornton had 1 attempt blocked, as did Pouliot, while Seidenberg had 4 attempts blocked.

As I've explained before, Corsi and Fenwick and other advanced stats can be better predictors, although the sample generally needs to be much larger than one game. Corsi is total number of shots + blocked shots + missed shots while Fenwick is shots + missed shots (no blocked shots counted). 

Using this formula and applying it to individual players, guys like Mike Green, who had 0 shots, had 3 attempts blocked and 1 attempts missed, so his Corsi (using the definition as total shots attempted) would be 4, which outnumbers guys like Brouwer and Hendricks who had 1 shot on net, but no other attempts. 

For the Bruins, Chara had 5 shots blocked, a missed shot, and 2 shots that got through to the net, so his total Corsi would be 8. That indicates that he will probably score eventually and create scoring chances if he continues to attempt shots as the more he attempts, the more likely he will get it on net. 

Since the Caps blocked so many shots last night, it might be worthwhile to see how the two numbers of Corsi and Fenwick differ. However, since these numbers only take into consideration even strength numbers, so any shots or attempted shots during PP or PK situations don't count. While calculating the shot attempts blocked during even strength, I noted that a large majority of Bruins shots blocked by the Capitals took place while the Bruins were on the power play, which significantly impacts the Corsi. Despite the Bruins shot attempts blocked (22) far outnumbering the Capitals shot attempts blocked (15), even strength shot attempts blocked were equal for both teams at 14, therefore the Corsi and Fenwick do not differ.

Using the Corsi (here, all numbers are even strength only):
Even Strength Shots
Even Strength Shot Attempts Blocked
Even Strength Shot Attempts Missed

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